in ohio a new ppp poll has president lead big four, 51-47. next new hampshire, a small state that may play a big role on election night, the new ppp poll has the president up by two there. north carolina, new poll from elon university shows the race tied. oregon, a state president obama won by 17 points in '08, race is tightening, 47-41. tonight our guest, thomas sargent. nobel laureate in economics, and one of the most cited economists in the world. professor sargent, can you tell me what cd rates will be in two years? no. if he can't, no one can. that's why ally has a raise your rate cd. ally bank. your money needs an ally. >>> welcome back to "hardball." we now know this election may very well come down to ohio. and in the last few days the romney campaign has done some things even independent observers consider desperate. first came this from mitt romney last thursday in defiance, ohio, about an hour away from toledo. >> i saw a story today that one of the great manufacturers in this state, jeep, now owned by the italians, is thinking of